UTC 2022 Funding - Cycle 3 Research Projects

Project No.: CY3-OSU-05
Title: Assessing Transportation Infrastructure Exposure to Flooding Using Next-Generation Flood Maps in Eastern Oklahoma
Performing Institution: Oklahoma State University
Principal Investigator: Gabriel Perez, Oklahoma State University
Start and Anticipated Completion Dates: 01/01/2026 to 01/15/2027
Abstract: FEMA flood maps are widely used as a primary reference for the planning, design, and risk assessment of transportation infrastructure, particularly for evaluating flood exposure to roads, bridges, and overall network performance during extreme weather events. While FEMA maps are routinely used by stakeholders, they have come under increasing scrutiny due to a key limitation: FEMA’s 100-year flood maps assume that the “100-year flood” is produced by a single design storm, commonly referred to as the “100-year storm.” As a result, these maps are deterministic, indicating only whether an area is flooded or not under the 100-year storm event. This approach fails to represent the full range of meteorological and hydrologic variability. To address this limitation, FEMA, in collaboration with USACE, NOAA, and USGS, launched the Future of Flood Risk Data Initiative (FFRDI) project. This initiative represents a paradigm shift: moving from deterministic to probabilistic flood hazard maps. Yet, there remains a critical question: how will these next-generation probabilistic flood maps impact transportation infrastructure risk analyses compared to the traditional, deterministic FEMA products? Addressing this question is urgent. Understanding how the new probabilistic maps alter flood exposure assessments is essential for transportation agencies to update resilience strategies, design standards, and emergency management plans. Without proactive evaluation, agencies risk facing misalignments between outdated flood data assumptions and modern hazard realities. This project aims to lead the first assessment of transportation infrastructure flood hazard exposure using probabilistic flood maps by using the FEMA’s FFRDI framework. The study will focus on the Illinois River watershed in eastern Oklahoma, covering approximately 800 km² from the urban center of Tahlequah to the Arkansas state line. This area includes critical transportation corridors such as State Highways 10 and 82, U.S. Highway 59 and 412. The domain was strategically selected based on the availability of pre-calibrated and validated hydrologic and hydraulic models provided by the USACE Tulsa District, ensuring realistic implementation within the project timeline. 
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